Publius' Forum

Iran is a sticky subject. It is no wonder that the Bush administration doesn't want to talk too much about Iran, why they felt it a good idea to shed any talks or discussions with Iran to the supposed EU3 (Germany, France and Britain). With the work going on in Iraq right now, the Bush administration doesn't need a mess in Iran, too. That is for certain.

But, the Iranians are forcing the issue with their attempts to develop nuclear weapons. So, what should we do? We certainly cannot allow the Iranians to get a nuclear bomb the way their society and country is now led. It is becoming ever more clear that the Iranians are not "sensible" with their current leadership. It is also obvious that they cannot be treated diplomatically as if they are "sensible" like one might negotiate with any number of other nations that are guided by the normal principles of economic and national interests.

Economic Interests

In a world of logic a nation is propelled by its economic interests, and in that vein it would be a far easier thing to expect diplomacy to work with Iran. But, Iran is not propelled by the economic interests and logical policy decisions and goals as a reasonably sane country would so be.

Iran has a persistent unemployment rate the hovers around 20 percent and they have little by the way of industry or internal improvement. They have but one real asset: oil. And the only benefit they get from it is export sales because they don't even have the capacity themselves to process it into usable products. They simply export crude and that is about it. So, to imagine it would be effective using economic sanctions as a bargaining chip in any discussions with Iran is just ridiculous. The Mullahs simply have no interest in economic realities. That dog won't hunt, as they say in Texas.

National Interests

Certainly, nationalism is one of the Mullahs' tricks. It is doubtful, though, if that trick would last too long. Every report out of Iran says that the lower classes and the youth of Iran are increasingly turning against the Mullahs. The Islamic revolution that the Mullahs said would spread all across the world never happened, the Mullahs seem to have failed at about every turn in Iran and this has undermined the once blind loyalty that the people had for them.

We can expect the people of Iran to eventually get past their current nationalist spirit guided by the Mullahs and turn to restructure their society and government over the constant failures of the Mullah’s reign.

Unfortunately for all of us, such a revolt is not on the verge any time soon, though. It could take a long time for this internal change over to occur. It may even take the death of the entire revolutionary generation and their own protégés before a new era of rulers might come to power. And we cannot afford to wait for that to happen. A nuclear-armed Mullah state would be too dangerous in the intervening time.

Also, and this is not said enough, it absolutely is in Iran's national interests to get a nuke. Let's face it. A nation has every sovereign right to acquire a nuclear arsenal. So, to attempt to negotiate with Iran by pretending they have no right to the bomb is just not a legitimate position to take. We can try to convince them that they do not need a nuke, but to act as if they do not deserve one is on its face, absurd. (Of course, they have no moral right to one because of their extremism, but they have a legitimate sovereign right to get one if they so desire)

Religious Extremists

And here is the stumbling block, why they cannot be allowed to get the bomb. This is the first time in a very long time that the world has seen a nation with such power so infused with a wild -eyed, apocalyptic religious certitude. Those currently in control of Iran are entirely sure that wide spread destruction for the sake of purifying the world is their charge. They do not need any 'logic" or any 'interests" based in real world reasoning to justify their aggressiveness. God has told them to do it.

As I mentioned, they have no moral right to such power. They have been the main exporters of terrorism for decades both directly and by offering financial support for many different groups perpetrating terror across the world. They have repeatedly said that they wish to bring genocide to the Israelis and they constantly threaten nearly every western nation.

But, their religion tells them they are in the right and no amount of diplomacy can make a dent in such a concept.

Bomb Them Soon

So, here is the best plan of action. Bomb their nuclear facilities. Bomb as many of them as we can find. Put their capacity to make more as far back as we can. If we destroy much of their current capacity it will take them no less than 3 to 5 years to rebuild. They will also have to rebuild with greater security in mind and that added need will make it even more difficult. If we are lucky we may even get 10 years of safety out of it.

Yes, it will cause them to hate America. But, they already hate America. They cannot hate us any more than they do. In the mean time, another monumental failure by the Mullahs -- the one that would be shown by our successful elimination of their nuclear facilities -- will certainly drive the internal strife faster along. Maybe it could even be a pivot for great change and force the Mullahs out sooner than anyone could imagine. It is hoped the religious extremism will be ended as a catalyst for government afterwards.

But, even if the Mullahs do not get thrown out, we will have made the area safe from unprincipled nuclear attacks for another 5 years or longer. It is a game for time but we are fast running out of time to play it. If we do not do this soon the window will have passed and a nuclear-armed Iran will be a reality.

-Warner Todd Huston